Oil Price Shock; You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Jeremy Warner
London Telegraph
Friday, March 4, 2011

The most common cause of a spiking oil price is supply shock. We may be seeing just such a phenonenon right now with the effective shut down of Libyan oil. But sometimes it’s excessive demand that does the damage.

Forget the present turbulence, which may or may not be temporary. You don’t have to look far into the future, perhaps as little as a year to 18 months, to see that a major demand challenge is looming which even assuming no further disruption to existing production, will challenge the present supply base to breaking point.

As it is, it’s fair to assume the world is closer to full capacity than producers care to admit. Rewind to the last oil price shock in the summer of 2008, and Saudi Arabia, pumping out oil at the rate of around 9.5 million barrels a day, was having to draw on inventories to meet demand. It’s therefore reasonable to assume that 9.5 million bpd then represented maximum capacity.

Since then, the Saudis have brought a further two fields on stream with a capacity of around 2 million bpd, bringing total capacity up to some 11.5 million bpd. But there is generally reckoned to be an attrition rate of around 6pc per annum on existing fields, taking us back to square one in terms of maximum daily output. This is perilously close to what the Saudis are already producing, and makes the assumed buffer of Saudi spare capacity considerably smaller than the Saudis claim. There’s not much slack anywhere else either.

Now look at growth in demand, virtually all of which is coming from China and other emerging markets. Chinese demand at around 10 million bpd annually is already around half that of the world’s biggest oil consumer, the US. But unlike the US, where demand is in gentle decline, in China it’s rising like a rocket.

Last year Chinese demand rose by close to 1 million bpd. It’ll probably be a bit lower this year, but not much. More cars are now being bought in China than the US, and they’ve got to run on something.

Full story here.